Trust Calibration

This page explains how to convert observed track records into calibrated trust estimates using Bayesian updating.

The Trust Update Problem

You have:

• A prior belief about component reliability
• Observations of successes and failures
• Need: Posterior belief for risk calculations

Bayesian Framework

Model Setup

Let θ = true reliability (probability of success per task).

// Prior: What we believe before observations
// Beta distribution is conjugate prior for binomial likelihood
prior = beta(alpha_0, beta_0)

// Observation model
// P(success | θ) = θ
// P(failure | θ) = 1 - θ

// Posterior after n successes, m failures
posterior = beta(alpha_0 + n, beta_0 + m)

Prior Selection

The prior encodes what we believe before seeing any data:

// Uninformative prior (know nothing)
uninformative = beta(1, 1)
// Uniform over [0, 1]

// Skeptical prior (expect ~50% reliability)
skeptical = beta(5, 5)
// Mean: 50%, concentrated around middle

// Optimistic prior (expect ~90% reliability)
optimistic = beta(9, 1)
// Mean: 90%, assumes competence

// Pessimistic prior (expect ~10% reliability)
pessimistic = beta(1, 9)
// Mean: 10%, assumes unreliability

// Informative prior based on component type
prior_deterministicCode = beta(100, 1)    // ~99% reliable
prior_narrowML = beta(19, 1)              // ~95% reliable
prior_generalLLM = beta(9, 1)             // ~90% reliable
prior_RLAgent = beta(4, 1)                // ~80% reliable

Prior Strength

The sum α₀ + β₀ determines how much data is needed to move the posterior:

Prior Strength	α₀ + β₀	Data to Move Significantly
Very weak	2	5-10 observations
Weak	10	20-50 observations
Moderate	50	100-200 observations
Strong	200	500+ observations

---

Updating Examples

Example 1: New LLM-Based Component

// Prior: General LLM, expect ~90% reliability
prior = beta(9, 1)

// After 50 successes, 3 failures
posterior = beta(9 + 50, 1 + 3)
// = beta(59, 4)
// Mean: 93.7%
// 90% CI: [86%, 98%]

Interpretation: Started at 90% prior, observed 94% success rate, posterior is 94% with tightened uncertainty.

Example 2: Critical Security Component

// Prior: Skeptical for security-critical (trust must be earned)
prior = beta(5, 5)
// Mean: 50%, wide uncertainty

// After 100 successes, 0 failures
posterior = beta(5 + 100, 5 + 0)
// = beta(105, 5)
// Mean: 95.5%
// 90% CI: [90%, 98%]

// After 100 successes, 2 failures
posterior_with_failures = beta(5 + 100, 5 + 2)
// = beta(105, 7)
// Mean: 93.8%
// 90% CI: [88%, 97%]

Example 3: Established Production System

// Prior: Strong optimistic prior (long track record)
prior = beta(900, 100)
// Mean: 90%, narrow uncertainty

// After 10 new failures in 1000 tasks
posterior = beta(900 + 990, 100 + 10)
// = beta(1890, 110)
// Mean: 94.5%

// Prior barely moved - strong prior dominates

---

Converting Track Record to Risk Modifier

The framework uses a track record modifier in risk calculations:

// Base risk from component type
baseRisk = probabilityPrior * damageEstimate

// Track record modifier (0 to 2, where 1 = no adjustment)
trackRecordModifier(posterior, prior) = {
  posteriorMean = posterior.alpha / (posterior.alpha + posterior.beta)
  priorMean = prior.alpha / (prior.alpha + prior.beta)

  // Ratio adjustment
  return priorMean / posteriorMean
  // > 1 if posterior is worse than prior (bad track record)
  // < 1 if posterior is better than prior (good track record)
}

// Adjusted risk
adjustedRisk = baseRisk * trackRecordModifier(posterior, prior)

Example Track Record Modifiers

Scenario	Prior	Observed	Modifier	Effect
New, untested	90%	-	1.0	Baseline
Good track record	90%	98%	0.92	8% reduction
Excellent record	90%	99.5%	0.90	10% reduction
Mediocre record	90%	85%	1.06	6% increase
Bad track record	90%	70%	1.29	29% increase

---

Time-Weighted Observations

Recent observations should count more than old ones:

Exponential Decay

// Weight observation by recency
weight(age_days, halfLife_days) = 0.5^(age_days / halfLife_days)

// Example: 30-day half-life
// Today's observation: weight = 1.0
// 30 days ago: weight = 0.5
// 60 days ago: weight = 0.25

// Effective observation count
effectiveSuccesses = sum(weight(age) for success in successes)
effectiveFailures = sum(weight(age) for failure in failures)

posterior = beta(
  alpha_0 + effectiveSuccesses,
  beta_0 + effectiveFailures
)

Sliding Window

// Only consider last N observations
windowSize = 100

recentSuccesses = count(successes in last windowSize)
recentFailures = count(failures in last windowSize)

posterior = beta(
  alpha_0 + recentSuccesses,
  beta_0 + recentFailures
)

---

Observation Quality Adjustments

Not all observations are equally informative:

Task Complexity Weighting

// Complex tasks are more informative
complexityWeight(complexity) = {
  if complexity <= 3: 0.5   // Easy tasks tell us less
  if complexity <= 6: 1.0   // Standard weight
  if complexity <= 9: 1.5   // Hard tasks more informative
  else: 2.0                  // Very hard tasks most informative
}

weightedSuccesses = sum(complexityWeight(task.complexity) for task in successes)

Adversarial vs. Random Errors

// Adversarial failures are more concerning
// Use different update for adversarial vs. benign failures

// Standard failure
standardFailure_weight = 1.0

// Adversarial failure (e.g., red team found exploit)
adversarialFailure_weight = 3.0  // Counts as 3 failures

// Random/benign error
benignFailure_weight = 0.7  // Less concerning

---

Multi-Component Trust

When multiple components form a pipeline:

Independent Components

// Pipeline reliability = product of component reliabilities
pipelineReliability = product(componentReliabilities)

// Update each component independently based on its observations

Correlated Components

// Components may share failure modes
// Use hierarchical model

// Global factor affecting all components
globalReliability = beta(alpha_global, beta_global)

// Component-specific deviation
componentReliability[i] = globalReliability * componentFactor[i]

// Observations from any component inform global estimate

---

Calibration Checks

Prediction Intervals

After updating, check if predictions match reality:

// Posterior predicts next 100 tasks will have X failures
// where X ~ BetaBinomial(100, posterior.alpha, posterior.beta)

// If actual failures fall outside 90% prediction interval,
// model may be miscalibrated

Brier Score

// Track prediction accuracy over time
brierScore = mean((predicted_prob - actual_outcome)^2)

// Perfect calibration: Brier score ≈ predicted_prob * (1 - predicted_prob)

---

Practical Recommendations

For New Components

1. Start with informative prior based on component type
2. Use weak prior strength (α₀ + β₀ ≈ 10) to allow quick updates
3. Monitor first 50-100 tasks carefully
4. Tighten prior as track record accumulates

For Established Components

1. Use moderate prior strength based on historical volume
2. Apply time-weighting (30-90 day half-life)
3. Weight complex tasks higher
4. Review calibration quarterly

For Critical Components

1. Use skeptical prior (must earn trust)
2. Weight adversarial failures heavily
3. Consider worst-case bounds, not just mean
4. Require statistical significance before trust increases

---

Reference Tables

Quick Prior Lookup

Component Type	Prior	Mean	90% CI
Deterministic code	beta(99, 1)	99%	[95%, 100%]
Narrow ML	beta(19, 1)	95%	[82%, 99%]
General LLM	beta(9, 1)	90%	[67%, 99%]
RL/Agentic	beta(4, 1)	80%	[45%, 98%]
New/Unknown	beta(1, 1)	50%	[5%, 95%]
Skeptical	beta(1, 9)	10%	[1%, 33%]

Observations Needed for Confidence

Starting Prior	Target Confidence	Successes Needed (0 failures)
beta(1, 1)	90% ± 5%	~35
beta(1, 1)	95% ± 3%	~60
beta(1, 1)	99% ± 1%	~200
beta(9, 1)	95% ± 3%	~30
beta(9, 1)	99% ± 1%	~100